This is a thing that I’ve been sending around.
Friends and family, I’ve been following developments in global financial markets, the manufacturing and construction sectors, and physical supply chains very closely following Trump’s announcement of massive tax increases (tariffs) last week.
I think it is likely that we are headed for a set of supply-and-demand shocks—different in their particulars, but—similar in magnitude to the ones we experienced in the early days of COVID in the spring of 2020. We’ve weathered shocks like this before, and we will weather them again, but they always fucking suck.
What I’m doing for myself, and what I would encourage you to do, is this: Lay in at least a 2-3 month supply of staples, whether sourced domestically or abroad, and, ideally, lay in a 6 month supply of anything you can’t live without.
For staples I mean things like food but also paper products (in the US, many of ours come from Canada), medications and supplements (many of ours come from Mexico), coffee, tea, chocolate, spices, vanilla, liquor, contraceptive products, cosmetics, personal care products, etc.
Also anything you need for summer (I need to buy an air conditioner).
I hope that I’m wrong, nothing comes of this, and I just wind up with extra paper towels in my closet for the next six months, but all my early warning signs are flashing danger right now.
P.S. Also, Congress and, in particular, Republicans in the Senate can end this any time they want, so, I encourage you to please call your Senators and ask them to remove tariff-setting power from the President and return it to Congress.